🚨 Most DANGEROUS Phase Of Iran War Has Just Begun | Prof. S. M. Marandi
Neutrality Studies
165,241 views Jul 24, 2026 Interviews
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Professor Seyed Mohammad Marandi joins Pascal Lottaz to discuss the reported war around Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on US bases, and growing pressure on Gulf states. They examine the risks to energy, trade, food supplies, and the global economy, as well as Iran’s ties with China and Russia. Marandi also argues that US policy is driven by failed assumptions and lacks a clear plan.
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Timestamps:
00:00:00 Introduction and situation in Tehran
00:02:24 Hormuz and the end of negotiations
00:08:28 Yemen, energy and global economic risks
00:13:04 Iran’s shipping corridor in Hormuz
00:17:05 Gulf states, diplomacy and escalation
00:19:34 US options and critical infrastructure
00:24:25 Why Iran is not striking Israel directly
00:29:16 China, Russia and Iran’s war economy
00:35:46 Does the US have a strategy?
00:43:44 How long can the war continue?
00:47:33 Where to follow Marandi and recommended books
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Transcript
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Introduction and situation in Tehran
0:00
Welcome back everybody to neutrality studies today for an update from Thran with our friend and colleague uh
0:06
professor say Muhammad Marandi say welcome back. Thank you very much for having me. It's
0:12
always a great pleasure being with you. Thank you very much for giving us these updates. They are very important because
0:19
last time we spoke actually we weren't quite certain if the United States was serious in really going into a third
0:27
round of the war. Basically, it seemed uh a little bit early for that one, but
0:32
it seems they've decided to do that. Um, you've been under bombardment again in Iran for the last I think now almost 10
0:39
days. Uh, Iran is striking back on each one of those days or rather at night.
0:44
And what's what's going on right now? And can you maybe first tell us what's the situation in Thran? Because the
0:51
internet connection seems more stable than during the last round. things seem calmer but what how is it on the ground
0:58
actually yes this time round they have not touched the internet connection and uh
1:05
therefore we don't have the sort of uh problems that we had during the 40-day
1:12
uh war during Ramadan but um but uh in general if you go about
1:22
everything is normal they haven't yet bombed the city of Terron. Although a
1:27
drone was downed over the city a couple of nights ago and uh the fighting
1:32
although it's been going on I think around 12 days now uh it is quite
1:37
intense in uh different areas u in the Persian Gulf region on both sides of the
1:45
Persian Gulf and in Jordan. But so far, except for
1:50
anti-aircraft fire a couple of nights ago in Thran, uh we haven't felt anything here. So,
1:59
people go around their daily lives. Uh there is a uh uh an apartment building
2:07
being built next door to where I am. I don't know if your listeners can hear
2:13
it, but it's just normal build builders building uh their buildings. Right now though, we
2:22
are entering a very sensitive time as you know. Uh although Trump is never
Hormuz and the end of negotiations
2:28
predictable, we can never say he's going to do anything for certain. Just like before, we felt that there's a high
2:34
possibility that he would attack, but no one could say for certain because Trump is Trump. And now since Trump has
2:41
threatened to destroy Iranian electrical power plants and um bridges
2:48
um the the war could escalate very suddenly and very badly for the global
2:54
economy. But then again, we don't know if Trump will uh as they say taco or or
3:02
whether he will carry out these attacks because he said that if Iran uh strikes
3:08
any ships in in the straight of Horos that he'll start targeting bridges and
3:13
uh uh power plants. But the Iranians have said that we will target any ships
3:18
that disobey the Iranian uh naval commands and uh in accordance with
3:25
article five of theou between Iran and the United States, the straight of hormones was to be under the control of
3:33
uh Iran. And uh the reason of course is is obvious. That is what prevents the
3:40
United States from assaulting and destroying Iran. uh Iran's control over
3:45
that uh key waterway. We all remember and I'm just going over what we all know
3:52
that um before this war Iran had no intention of controlling the rate of hormones. I in my adult life I don't
3:59
remember anyone ever even speaking about such a scenario in public. Of course, in
4:05
private, it's now become clear that um if uh this war was waged against us,
4:11
Iran would move to shut the straight of hormones and control it. But uh under normal circumstances,
4:18
uh that wasn't the plan and that wasn't anything that was discussed in the public sphere.
4:24
So uh everything was normal back then. And then when the war started, what prevented the United States from doing
4:33
much greater harm was the fact that Iran took control of the strait that put
4:38
enormous pressure on Trump and the US and the US economy. Uh so and that
4:44
forced him to end the war and ultimately signed the MO. So Iran is not going to allow the United States to undermine
4:51
that leverage because if that leverage is undermined then the United States will bomb Iran day and night, destroy
4:58
all of its electrical power plants and know that it can get away with it.
5:04
So it seems to me that the from Iran we've heard a lot of um of
5:10
comments especially on Twitter from um Mr. uh Arai and and others that the that
5:17
they consider theou as dead. It's been uh it's gone. It's over. And that that
5:25
Iran will now work on implementing militarily what they were trying to do
5:30
with the MOU diplomatically, which is the expelling the United States completely from the region, and they
5:37
won't entertain the thought of of more negotiations again. Where where are we on on that end? is kind kind of has
5:44
Iran's patience now being used up and the decision was made okay this is going
5:49
to be military solution will keep pounding these uh the American bases and
5:55
whatn not and in the end we will degrade the ability of the United States to strike us in the first place is that
6:00
where we are going yes for the time being the Iranians are not interested in negotiations at all
6:07
and they are focused on destroying US assets um across the region but now
6:12
increasingly in Jordan and to the west of Saudi Arabia. Um under heavy uh daily
6:21
strikes 24 hours a day, uh US bases in Kuwait and Bahin in particular. Uh the
6:29
Americans have been forced to um uh withdraw many of their assets,
6:36
especially those that deal with the air campaign and take them to Jordan. And so
6:43
the and uh bases in Saudi Arabia to the west of the country. And then I think probably to the US
6:49
surprise, the Iranians have begun striking those bases deep inside Saudi
6:55
Arabia and in Jordan with the devastating results. And we're seeing many of the satellite images of the
7:01
bases being badly damaged. So the United States is now even thinking about going
7:08
further away from Iran's border. So right now Iran is not interested in
7:13
negotiations and ultimately when there is an opportunity to bring about an end
7:20
to the fighting I think that the Iranian demands are going to be different from theou. uh they will probably demand
7:28
certain things in advance and I would assume that their demands
7:33
would expand and uh among them would definitely be the siege on uh Yemen that
7:40
must come to an end and the situation in Gaza even though these two are they were
7:47
inou but they weren't named directly they were alluded to indirectly but in
7:52
future Iran whatever happens uh after the to to bring about an end to
7:58
the fighting uh the Iranian demands will be uh substantially different um and
8:06
more broad and um and Iran will be more demanding than during theou
8:13
negotiations. Hey, just a very quick note. The best way to support this channel is by
8:18
signing up for my free Substack. You can also help with a paid subscription there or you can get some of our new merch on
8:24
neutralitystudies.com links below. See you there. I mean the the way that this entire uh
Yemen, energy and global economic risks
8:32
process is going, it seems to me that the war or warfare is just widening.
8:37
It's just spreading. Uh Yemen is now reportedly blocking their uh straight. I
8:44
was mispronouncing. Bab al um Madab
8:50
Babal Mandab and the uh the the Saudis now got a apparently an agreement with
8:56
the Americans that they can enrich uranium which is bizarre at this moment. Uh and the the the bases the US bases
9:04
that are now hit in Jordan. And the we've got now news that Jordanian uh
9:10
public society is actually demanding that Jordan uh abolish its agreement
9:16
with the United States for for stationing troops. At the same time, the
9:21
Israel is still working its uh it it's its warfare with Lebanon. So I mean this
9:27
it seems to be to be gradually morphing into an old West Asian kind of war
9:33
theater. How are you seeing that especially about Yemen and Jordan?
9:38
Oh, absolutely. Yemen has struck two Saudi tankers.
9:44
uh and of course tankers are not going through the balm mandab and this as we
9:50
all know comes as the straight of foremost is closed and uh thus the price
9:55
of oil is going up and uh you know one of the things that we are always focused
10:01
on is the price of oil but uh all all sorts of other products that come from
10:07
the Persian Gulf the petrochemicals uh which of course include helium and
10:14
alongside them and uh the uh and uh um
10:20
and and all and all and even refined oil. Uh all of these are now their
10:26
shortages uh are growing and uh
10:33
even um agriculture across the world is going to be badly affected uh next year
10:41
uh because of the shortages in in this part of the world. So a lot of the a lot of the harm that's uh coming uh people's
10:50
way uh uh across the world is is not uh quite visible yet to us. In other words,
10:57
the long-term impact is growing and it's very broad and uh and and extensive, but
11:05
we're only focused on the oil shortage, which itself is extremely important because uh heavy crude is used for
11:14
diesel and diesel is what makes the global economy turn. light crude does
11:20
not cannot replace diesel and so uh or heavy crude uh and uh so this is
11:27
extraordinarily uh bad for the global economy and it and if things continue as
11:33
they are I think we're heading for a a global economic depression if this lasts for long or
11:40
if the United States carries out its threat to strike Iranian critical infrastructure uh Iran will destroy the
11:47
critical infrastructure of those countries that are assisting the United States, meaning Kuwait, Saudi Arabia,
11:52
Bahrain, Katad, the Emirates, and perhaps Oman uh because of their recent actions. And
11:59
so if that happens, these countries will fall apart because they're just deserts for the most part and they only have oil
12:05
and gas. So people will, you know, 30 million people perhaps more will have to
12:12
evacuate these countries. And uh Iran doesn't want to do this. Iran didn't
12:17
start the war. Iran didn't uh escalate, but these countries are partners in in crime. They're partners in this war. So,
12:25
if that happens, then the shortages will be permanent and they will I I think it
12:32
will create an enormous shock in the market, which will almost immediately lead us to a global economic meltdown
12:39
and a an economic depression worse than the 1930s. So, whatever happens, Pascal,
12:46
it's going to get worse. But in some scenarios it gets worse more slowly. In
12:51
some scenarios it gets worse very swiftly. In some scenarios it can be
12:57
reversed after a few years. In some scenarios uh it will take maybe decades.
Iran’s shipping corridor in Hormuz
13:04
But in the last discussion we had we kind of came to the point or to the conclusion that from now on forward Iran
13:12
wouldn't just treat the straight off moose is like a binary on and off. It's not a switch anymore. It's more like a
13:17
faucet where Iran then decides okay which ships can go through especially the ones that keep to the uh not
13:24
especially the ones that actually announce themselves uh and and and ask for permission to pass and there's now a
13:32
straight authority that Iran set up. Is that still active at the moment? because Iran there has this issue right on the
13:38
one hand uh a a complete blockade and and um impact on world the world price
13:46
of crude is something that works as leverage on the other hand Iran I suppose would rather want not to damage
13:53
the economies of its own friends right of especially of the Chinese uh but there's other countries as well I know
14:00
that Iran and Japan have a passible relationship actually and that that at least in the past they haven't
14:06
bad blood. So, is it still possible for some ships to go through and is is Iran
14:12
there um using what approach is Iran using for for this?
14:17
Well, I can't say for certain what is happening right now in the straight of
14:22
Horos. I haven't been asking, but I've heard from uh uh two or three different
14:27
people that a number of ships have been passing through daily from the through
14:33
the Iranian corridor and the American corridor is shut down
14:38
and last night uh another ship was struck because it was trying to the the
14:46
Americans were uh and the Saudis and the Amiratis and the Kuwaitis were trying to get three ships through to the American
14:52
corridor and Iran struck one of them and the other two retreated. So that path is
14:58
closed, but a limited number of ships are are going through the um the league
15:05
the Iranian designated corridor. Now I don't know whose ships they are. Uh I
15:11
heard that yesterday there were roughly 10 ships or the day before probably more or less the same. I don't know who they
15:17
belong to, but yes, Iran is not uh trying to hurt those countries that are
15:23
uh peaceful towards Iran. But we have to keep in mind that most of these ships
15:29
belong or are linked to the Saudis, the Amiratis, the Kuwaitis, the Bahinis, and
15:36
the Bataris. And these are the countries uh and now Oman, which has increasingly
15:42
been forced by the Americans to take a anti-ranian stance. These six countries
15:47
are effectively helping the Americans wage war against our own country. So there's no reason why Iran should be
15:56
lenient towards them when they're behaving this way towards us. But uh but
16:01
Iran has no issues with China or Japan or others. But then again, the situation is so
16:08
tense. I mean the fighting in the um in the Persian Gulf region in the straight of Hormalos region the missiles that are
16:14
going back and forth they make it dangerous anyway so the even the Iranian corridor corridor doesn't have a lot of
16:21
ships that want to pass through because of um
16:27
shipping companies being worried about safety because uh shipping companies uh
16:32
or or insurance companies uh demanding uh too much money from the shipping
16:38
companies. There are a host of different reasons that are now affecting the flow of ships. And apparently the crisis for
16:45
fertilizer is ex is is particularly bad. And this is something that I think that
16:52
was said in one of the statements by the Iranian armed forces that the Americans should end this war because the the
16:59
global fertilizer crisis is getting uh beyond containment.
Gulf states, diplomacy and escalation
17:05
And so what about the relationship with the Gulf states? I mean, on the one hand, we've seen that some of them,
17:12
especially Saudi Arabia, send a delegation to the funeral of Ayat. On the other hand, they're still part of
17:18
the of the coalition that that enables this uh these attacks. Is there any
17:24
movement on this? That something that that we on on our side are not seeing? Are there negotiations, diplomatic
17:31
exchange between the Gulf States and Iran? Is anything moving? Because it seems to me that the Gulf States should
17:37
get more and more interested and actually into panic of like trying to
17:42
end this uh USIsraeli uh spear attack. I mean attack
17:49
attacks on on on on Iran, but it so far they they not moving or at least I don't
17:54
see much of it. I I can't say for certain. I don't I don't have
17:59
information that I could state to you as fact. But in general during the this
18:06
period, these these four or five months now, um messages have always been going
18:12
back and forth between Iran and these different uh family
18:18
uh uh dictatorships in the Persian Gulf. And sometimes delegations do go back and
18:24
forth. But um but the problem of course is that they refuse to change course. Uh
18:33
sometimes in general uh sometimes the situation gets better,
18:39
sometimes the situation gets worse. Uh right now, for example, Iran is not
18:45
targeting the Emirates uh or Qatar as much as it's targeting
18:53
Kuwait and um Bahrain. Um for but some
18:59
sometimes it's it can it's linked to the fact that certain negotiations have had
19:04
progress. Sometimes it's linked to the just it's linked to the fact that US forces in those areas are of a
19:11
particular threat. So things are constantly changing and evolving. But
19:16
right now Iran is targeting American forces wherever they are. And they, you
19:23
know, even even if it's Oman where Iran has had better relations, the Iranians are not going to allow the Americans to
19:30
be a threat to Iran from Oman either. I I would say that we're probably in the
US options and critical infrastructure
19:36
most dangerous phase of the war. And when I mean the dangerous phase, I don't mean the last 12 or 13 days or so. I
19:45
mean the entire war because because Pascal the the the Americans
19:50
know that they cannot defeat Iran militarily. They've already experienced that during the first 40 days. They know
19:57
that they cannot defeat Iran in siege warfare. They saw that in the subsequent
20:02
couple of months that led to theou being signed. So now with after they've restarted the
20:10
war, they've been trying to focus on taking the straight and that's failed too. And we see the price of energy
20:18
going through the roof and as I said all the other commodities are are are rising
20:23
as well, but they're not in the uh headlines. So the only option really
20:29
left with Americans is to continue with what we're do what's happening now. And
20:34
so the price of oil will gradually rise especially with the Babul Mandab and the
20:40
Red Sea as it is now and the shortages will increase and the global economy
20:45
will fall into recession and then perhaps it will continue and fall into depression. That is one scenario and at
20:52
some point the Americans give up. But in any case that would be that would be one
20:58
trajectory. The second would be the United States says okay say comes and says that okay this hasn't worked. So
21:05
the only thing left to do is to escalate and the escalation can take uh two
21:13
different directions. One is a land operation which I don't see as succeeding at all. Iran doesn't control
21:20
the uh the straight of Hormos through the mountaintops around the straight.
21:26
This is we're not in the 20th century anymore. This is the 21st century. The the missiles that are being fired to at
21:33
Jordan are being fired from a thousand kilometers away. So Iran can definitely
21:38
control the you know the Australia Hormos uh from anywhere in the country. They don't need the hills or the
21:45
mountains or the shore alongside the straight. So if the US carries out a
21:51
land attack, it will fail and then there will be counter offensives and Iranian ground troops are all prepared. They and
21:58
you know they're equipped with rockets and their own drones and and so that
22:04
would be one that would be a failure. The second would be to start targeting
22:09
Iranian critical infrastructure as Trump has once again threatened. He made this threat before during the 40-day war. He
22:15
did in Netanyao begin began to carry it out a couple of times and the Iranians
22:20
hit back very hard. The most famous example was when they struck the Iranian south pars gasfield and then the
22:27
Iranians retaliated severely and one of the places that they struck was the
22:32
Katari uh gas field which uh did enormous damage and Trump posted a truth
22:38
social saying this is not this is not going to happen again. we're not going I'm not going to let uh Iranian u
22:45
critical infrastructure be destroyed because he knew the he understood the consequences. And so whenever the United
22:52
States or the Israelis carried out an attack, the Iranians carried out a much bigger attack. So it was managed and
22:58
contained. Yeah. This time around though, this could be the last option that okay,
23:05
let's just go for it. let's start targeting Iranian let's say um
23:12
electrical power plants well then that's then the Iranians are going to do the same to Saudi Arabia to Kuwait the
23:19
Emirates Bahin Gab and these countries ascll they are very different from Iran
23:24
not only are are they very hot and uh humid and we're in the height of summer
23:30
that aside but they only have a few power plants and they're all alongside the shore they're They're larger power
23:37
plants than in Iraq. Iran has power plants spread out across the country. So if the Americans want to start bombing
23:43
Iranian power plants, it will not be easy to destroy them because uh you know
23:49
they'd have to carry out air strikes day and night all over the country, risk airplanes and but you all Iran has to do
23:56
is target a handful of very huge power plants, centralized power plants, and it
24:01
would be over. So for the Iranians, it's easier to destroy to to carry out
24:06
retaliation, which Iran doesn't want to do. This is just deterrence.
24:11
The Iranians not the Iranians did not start the war. They didn't start the escalation, and they're not threatening to escalate. They're only uh saying that
24:20
if you carry out these attacks, we'll respond. Why is Iran mainly threatening the Gulf States and not Israel? In this latest
Why Iran is not striking Israel directly
24:27
round, we've seen how Iran did not at least I haven't read about strikes against Israel and it it it seems to me
24:33
that you know Israel is this kind of very um is very dear to the United States at least. Let's put it like that,
24:39
right? So why is it that the that that the strategy the retaliation strategy is against the Gulf States? I I understand
24:45
that they're enablers, of course, but but but you know, one of the key reasons
24:51
why the United States in the end went went to war is because Netanyahu convinced Trump that this is the right
24:56
course of action. So why is it that in the current phase, Israel is kind of just left there um like sitting on the
25:04
side? Well, I think it's a bit more complicated than that. First of all, this is about the straight of hormones.
25:11
I mean, the battle is over the straight of hormones, right? And Iran must win this battle. It
25:17
is existential. And so the focus is on this. If the Israeli regime attacks Iran, Iran will
25:24
start hammering it day and night. But for the time being, Iran wants to focus on victory against the United States.
25:30
Victory against the United States is a victory over the Israeli regime anyway. But there's also a couple of other
25:35
things. One is that the Iranians are m making it much more dangerous for the
25:41
Israeli regime. not only by weakening the United States but also by destroying the lines of defense that the United
25:47
States has created for the Israelis meaning the the layers of radar systems
25:53
and anti- drone and missile systems that existed existed from between the Persian
25:59
you know in the Persian Gulf in deep in Saudi Arabia and Jordan in northern Iraq
26:06
uh all of these are being destroyed and uh the only place left really is
26:11
Turkey IA which the radar systems they are used to protect the Israelis but
26:16
other than that to to the central and south they're all being destroyed and this is a particular use for Iranian
26:24
drones. Iranian missiles of course have a very high success rate as we're seeing
26:30
in the last I mean they're much they're Iranian missiles are becoming
26:35
increasingly precise and uh evasive and so we see I mean I
26:42
think the Americans are quite stunned as because of the way in which they're being hammered across the board. So the
26:48
Iranians are much more effective now or significantly more effective now than even during the 12 the 40-day war.
26:56
So those defense so once once those defense defenses are destroyed Iranian drones can no longer be easily
27:03
intercepted. They can go all the way to Palestine and and bomb the Israelis.
27:08
But also there's a final issue too and well let's say two issues. One is that Iran does not um initiate any war. It
27:17
never has and it doesn't intend to. These countries are attacking Iran.
27:23
Their territory is being used to bomb Iran. Uh if so, if the Israeli regime
27:29
initiates a conflict, a war, Iran will hit them very hard. That's a But the
27:34
bigger issue is also that there is a crisis going on in in in Israel and uh
27:41
the internal strife is becoming very dangerous.
27:47
And some say it could some of them are even talking of civil war in the Hebrew press.
27:53
In any case, the divisions are very high and and Netanyahu is in
27:58
bad shape. If Iran initiates conflict, it could and
28:03
it could change the internal dynamics in a way which we don't want now because of
28:10
the upcoming elections. Not that Netanyahu's rivals are any better than him. It's a choice between genocidal
28:16
maniacs, but a weakened Netanyahu, a broken Netanyahu
28:25
as a because of all that has happened over the next three years is a good thing. Again, his successor may not be
28:32
any better, but his defeat is symbolic. So the Iranians do not want
28:40
to disturb the internal fighting that's going on inside Palestine for the time
28:47
being. And if they start something against Iran, then Iran can hit them very hard and that could ultimately be
28:56
blamed on Netanyahu. So Iran would rather they start. And while they are
29:01
waiting to see what happens, as I said, they're destroying and dismantling all of those radar systems and all of those
29:08
uh air defense systems and of course at the same time fighting the battle for
29:14
the strait. Do you have any and that's very interesting actually. I mean this this
China, Russia and Iran’s war economy
29:20
this aspect of do not disturb your enemy while the enemy is in deep trouble already anyhow, right? you don't want to
29:27
accidentally unite the country against uh again against against a common enemy. That's yeah [laughter]
29:33
very sophisticated. Um but on the other hand do we see more cooperation now or
29:39
do you have any information about cooperation with China and Russia? Uh as we talked before in the beginning I
29:46
think especially China was very pessimistic about the chances of Iran and Iran I think really surprised China
29:51
by uh its own abilities and so on. Um and of course Iran is part and parcel of
29:56
the bricks uh states. Do you have any information of how the Iran's foreign
30:02
policy is now continuing or or bilateral relations, multilateral relations is
30:07
continuing while being at war, which it it seems that this this this is a new
30:12
status quo at least for for the time being that Iran is now learning to live with and continue with the other parts
30:20
of life despite the fact that it's constantly being bombarded and kind of kind of just deal with it. Uh Iran's
30:28
relationship with uh the Chinese and the Russians are continued to be very good.
30:35
Uh the Russians uh and the Iranians are uh
30:41
coordinating uh at all sorts of levels um as
30:47
neighbors. I mean the it's easy to u for
30:53
for ordinary trade to take place between Iran and Russia even under sie siege
30:58
because the Russians don't use the Persian Gulf uh or this trade of
31:03
hormones to trade with Iran. So their trade goes right through the north south corridor the Caspian Sea or through the
31:09
Caucases or through Central Asia. In the case of the Chinese, trade is
31:15
more difficult now uh because of the siege and the fact that the Chinese use
31:21
uh and the Iranians use uh the the uh the sea lanes for for trade for a lot of
31:28
their trade. But trade between the two countries is increasing through Central
31:33
Asia and uh through even Afghanistan and and Pakistan. So they're trying to
31:42
compensate for the the limitations caused. Now Iran was also very smart in
31:48
that when it signed theou it immediately had tens of millions of barrels of oil ready in tankros that were stuck in the
31:54
Persian Gulf and they exported those to their Asian markets mostly China. And
32:00
immediately they brought in uh uh supplies into the country during those
32:05
that 3 weeks of uh when the window was open because the Iranians knew ultimately the Americans would most
32:11
probably go back to war. So, a lot of Iran's uh needs have been
32:18
met and it it is prepared for a a very long war and we don't know if the war is going to a last for a year or two years
32:25
or two months or 3 months but the escalation is is uh is is rapidly
32:32
increasing as we all see and now we finally we do see Yemen entering the
32:37
frey and partially it is because of the Saudi regime's own stupidity. I mean I
32:42
find it quite stunning that at at the time when the straight of hormones is closed the Iran sent a passenger plane
32:50
to pick up a delegation in Yemen and also to bring injured Yemeni people to Iran because their hospitals don't have
32:56
the sort of the some of the the the the equipment that that exists in Iran. And
33:03
then when they went back to and I met some of the people in the Yemeni delegation when they were going back to
33:10
Yemen, the Saudis bombed the airport and that outraged Iran because this was a a civilian airline with men and women
33:19
uh in the crew, an ordinary crew, but it it was an act of war against
33:25
Yemen. And that was, I think, the straw that broke the camel's back. So now
33:30
Yemen has imposed its own siege on Saudi Arabia because the Saudis have imposed a siege on Yemen for many years and and so
33:39
this escal this has led to as we all see a more rapid escalation.
33:45
So um I this could intensify uh this could act as a catalyst to speed
33:52
things up in the war because the price of energy will rap more rapidly
33:57
increase. Saudi Arabia will be in grave danger because it is to you know these these six countries these six US proxies
34:04
in the Persian Gulf they are totally dependent on the on oil and gas they
34:10
don't have like a a diverse economy Iran is a country which uh is almost
34:18
self-sufficient in its agriculture in some uh aspects it it it exports
34:24
agricultural goods and and it imports Um, on the whole, it's more or less self-sufficient, let's say. Um, and if
34:31
it wasn't for the sanctions, Iran would be uh would definitely be more than just self-sufficient.
34:37
But Saudi Arabia and the others, they they have oil or in the case of Qatar gas. And when that and they're they are
34:44
they're high spenders, too. uh the Iranians because of the sanctions over the many years they have they they've
34:50
developed their own uh local industries and their own if you go into an Iranian supermarket especially in central tan or
34:58
southern tan all the goods are Iranian you won't see all that many foreign products in the rich neighborhoods where
35:05
people would like to have their uh their kelloggs corn flakes or you know their
35:12
western chocolates uh you you'll a bit you'll see you'll
35:17
see some of that but still in the north of Thran 95% of the goods are still
35:23
Iranian so but this is not the case in these countries they're very dependent
35:28
so if the straight of horos shut and then the uh bubble mandab is shut
35:35
and Saudi ships are being hit in the red sea and also they can't move around in the Persian Gulf then how long do they
35:42
last may I just ask you like how do Do you interpret the this phase now of the
Does the US have a strategy?
35:49
war? I mean, you might say that this has been the plan all along, you know, theou that's
35:56
why Donald Trump signed it. He knew that this was just a piece of paper and it's worthless. So, whatever whatever's on it
36:02
doesn't really matter. Just need a break and then continue. Uh, so this is part and parcel of the strategy actually. Or
36:08
you can say that this is the United States actually failing then to get uh to get to implement this corridor and
36:14
getting getting angry at this. Some people that I talked to Larry Johnson and so on they keep saying look there is
36:20
no strategy. We have no strategy. This is this is as social scientists would say path dependence. Now you are you you
36:28
do what you have to do because you did what you did what you did the the days and months before right but there's no
36:34
overarching strategy. There's no there's no theory of victory for the United States, especially now that it has tried
36:39
all of these things and short of a ground invasion. Basically tried out b uh almost everything. Uh and they are
36:46
just sucked into into a basically a forever war until until the machinery runs out of steam. Uh others are saying
36:54
like no, it's still part and parcel of a strategy. What especially a strategy and some draw a very broad picture say like
37:01
it's actually aimed against China. They want to hurt China and and and make sure that through closing the trade of
37:07
Hormuz, you can put pressure on on on on on China very much. Although China is
37:12
showing an remarkable resilience, actually winding down its oil imports
37:18
and being completely utterly fine. That's also really fascinating. How are you interpreting what what this this
37:24
stage is or what the war at the moment actually means? I'm sure the United States is has an eye
37:31
on China and it has an eye on Russia too. I mean, if Iran was defeated, it would be very bad news for China and
37:38
Russia. Uh but I don't think there is any strategy. I think that this is a
37:43
total mess and I think I think the perhaps one of the biggest issue I mean
37:48
we've we've a lot of people have been focusing on the US military and how it is much less capable than it has been
37:55
assumed. Uh but I think another aspect that has been less discussed is US
38:01
intelligence or western intelligence or Israeli regime intelligence and they
38:06
miscalculated everything from beginning to end. Uh if you go back to what they
38:11
were saying at the beginning of the war, how they wiped out all of Iran's drones and missiles and bases and the Iran has
38:18
nothing and it's and you look at the situation now, obviously they had no idea what they were talking about. And
38:23
these were not like pundits. This was like the secretary of war. It wasn't just Trump, the the guy who always talks
38:30
nonsense. It was uh it is uh it was the secretary of war and other key
38:36
officials. It was the uh Pentagon constantly carrying putting out
38:41
statements or talking about how everything in Iran has been destroyed. And yet here we are 5 months later and
38:48
the Iranians are striking them day and night. And then of course the issue of Iran's internal
38:55
uh stability and the legitimacy of the state. If we are to believe the narratives that come out of Western
39:02
think tanks, western media and uh and western governments as being sincere,
39:08
they completely misread Iran. They uh have no understanding of the country.
39:14
The funerals have shown that the the the popular uh the popularity of the Islamic
39:22
Republic among the population far outweighs that of what we have in the
39:27
west and the depth of that popularity. I mean the fact that you have like what 15
39:33
16 million people in Tehran on the streets uh for a funeral. What does that say in
39:40
the in the summer heat in Tehran? is like 35° and then just getting there is
39:46
a is a burden. I you have to you know takes took me three hours to get there then you walk for hours and then you
39:52
takes a couple of hour took me a couple of hours to get back I had to go to sleep and then you have millions of
39:57
people who are struggling uh there you know factories have been bombed hospitals schools have been
40:02
bombed there's a siege there's there sanctions their infrastructure has been targeted so a
40:10
lot of people you know they're facing inflation some have lost their jobs uh
40:15
some have probably worked I Definitely many have worked in places that have been damaged.
40:21
So why did they participate? Because the they wanted to show their support for
40:26
the Islamic Republic, their respects for ayat and that that crowd in Tehran, in the
40:33
holy city of Kum and the holy city of Mashad and in Iraq. It it for the first
40:39
time Western media was dumbfounded. They they were just stunned. They didn't because they're always trying to say
40:46
that the the regime, as they love to call it, is unpopular, despised, hated,
40:51
it's falling apart. All you have to do is push it. It falls like a house of cards. So all of these calculations were
40:58
wrong. And um so the US intelligence
41:05
most probably and Israeli regime intelligence,
41:11
they are not up to the job. Just like the US military is incompetent
41:17
uh and incapable, their intelligence agencies are incompetent and incapable.
41:23
And I think that is a big part of the story too that they just mis misread the
41:28
situation and when things began to fall apart, they it became clear that they had no strategy because initially their
41:35
strategy was very it could be written down in a paragraph, you know, bomb the regime as they love to call it. The
41:43
regime collapses, country breaks up into different pieces. We install different people. They fight among each other and
41:49
at least Israel is happy and it can and it can expand and take over territory
41:55
and surrounding countries and the problem is resolved. Uh since that
42:00
didn't work then then there is no strategy there. It's like they they they
42:06
just they just move forward and try different things out and make things worse and for worse for themselves and
42:13
for the entire globe. And I think I've said this before in your show and I don't know if you read that book going to Tan.
42:20
They were predicting this very good book. It deals with a lot of the myths by Clinton Hillary Leard and maybe you
42:27
can invite Hillary. They predicted this. They said that the the course that the United States is taking is ultimately
42:34
going to lead to warfare. And these were people who worked in the White House. Uh
42:39
of course there are other good books like Alistister Crook's resistance and so on. But uh these two people were
42:45
saying that this course of action is uh is ultimately going to lead to war and
42:51
here we are. They kept saying to themselves that Iran is weak, it is vulnerable, it is falling
42:58
apart. So it's a it'll be a walk in the park. Yeah. But you know one of the
43:04
misconceptions is of course that when we say like oh no it's going to lead to war that then everybody will say like oh no
43:09
we don't want that. Unfortunately there's a lot of people say like yeah that's what we want. This is our problem solving strategy. We go to war we kill
43:16
them. Uh problem solved right? That's how the United States for 250 years basically got rid of anyone who stood in
43:22
its way of like expansion right over the North American continent. They started as 13 colonies, right? And they became
43:29
what it is today. And the large part is by using warfare and and and and and massacring people, right? And and and
43:35
expanding. So, but it's not working anymore, right? So, this is this is where where where it's just the strategy
43:40
is not working. So, and this is maybe just a very last point. Um, if now the
How long can the war continue?
43:46
United States is caught in a non in a in an in a in a war without a strategy and
43:52
a war that it cannot win and you know basically a a Vietnam kind of situation
43:57
just many times bigger, faster, worse. Um, what is what is your interpretation?
44:04
How long will it take until this machinery will run either out of steam because they don't have the implements
44:10
of war anymore or out of interest because you know like ah we've seen that before when they just walk away of
44:16
Afghanistan go like yeah we don't care anymore by um do you have any any gut feeling about because it seems to me
44:22
that it's things are devel are going quite fast much faster than Vietnam much faster than Afghanistan
44:28
well actually that's what I was going to say and you answered the question I
44:34
very uh well with your last comment. The difference between Afghanistan and Iraq
44:40
and Vietnam and all the others is the the global e economic crisis that's uh
44:47
emerging very rapidly. It could be a long war. I mean, I don't I really don't have an answer and I'm
44:53
just guessing. It's just 100% speculation. The Iranians are prepared for long and they've been preparing for
45:00
this war for decades and they have so many missiles and drones and all these
45:06
underground bases and they're building them and producing them like there's no tomorrow. So they've been they're
45:12
prepared for long-term wood. As I said, they built this infrastructure for this this moment.
45:18
But personally, I think it's difficult for it to be last too long because I
45:24
don't think the global economy can tolerate this war for very long. This is not the United States of the 1960s.
45:32
I mean, Vietnam was a burden, no doubt, but the United States was the power. It
45:38
was the global economic power, and there was no number two anywhere near it. We
45:44
live in a different world today and the United States relatively speaking is much diminished. Relatively speaking,
45:51
saying it's a banana republic, but it's um but it's not what it was in the
45:57
1960s. And the same is true after the the collapse of the Soviet Union. There was no power to counter the United
46:04
States. And the United States foolishly uh wasted its energy in Iraq and Afghanistan, which by the way largely
46:10
was because of Iran. And when they invaded, the Iranians began to support the resistance in these countries.
46:16
General Sollemani of course and the United States wasted trillions of dollars in both countries. And that
46:23
today makes the that's what makes the United States much weaker now in its war
46:29
against Iran because it's been weakened so badly by its previous wars. But in any case, the United States is in is is
46:37
not in a good financial situation. It's not in a good economic situation. It's not in a good military situation nor
46:44
political situation. And we see that for the first time, a war waged by the United States is deeply unpopular from
46:50
the very beginning. Usually in the United States, people a lot of people seem to like wars. But in this case, it
46:58
didn't start well probably because many people are waking up. They see it through the propaganda and some other
47:04
people see the economic hardship. But I find it difficult for the United States
47:10
to be able to sustain this for very long. Although many people disagree
47:15
and uh and I may be wrong, but I don't think that this can go on for years. I think that ultimately the uh if this
47:23
continues as it is and the global economy continues to deteriorate, I
47:28
think that at some point the United States is going to have to stop. I have the same gut feeling, but maybe
Where to follow Marandi and recommended books
47:35
that's also just uh the kind of my morbid optimism because I would like things to get better again. In any case,
47:42
um say thank you very much for this wonderful update. Um that's that was very insightful. People who want to read
47:49
more from you. I think they should follow you mostly on Twitter. You you tweet quite regularly updates and and
47:54
and pieces and nuggets of information there. Is there any other place where where people should find you?
48:02
No, I've been removed from Instagram long long a long time ago and the same
48:07
is true with Facebook. So all I have is my Twitter account. I also have a telegram uh channel which if and what
48:13
goes to my Twitter account they can see it at the top. But I I do advise people to read those books that I mentioned
48:19
going to Tan uh the uh the book by Alistister Crook uh
48:28
resistance and and also a couple of other books uh manufactured crisis and
48:35
uh Peter Oorn's um a dangerous delusion. These are these are there very few books
48:41
good books on Iran. And that's one reason why I think the West miscalculate so much. They write they write their own
48:48
books. They're all about a weak Iran, you know, broken Iran, unpopular Iran.
48:54
These four books that I named are are are honest are intellectually honest.
49:00
The the the authors are all intellectually honest and that's what makes them a lot different from the rest. And if you policy makers had paid
49:07
attention to them, we wouldn't be where we are today. Read more books everybody. I will try to
49:13
put the links into the description books below. Say Muhammad Mandi. Thank you so much for your time today.
49:19
Thank you Pascal. It's always a pleasure.
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