America’s Suez Crisis (w/ Alastair Crooke) | The Chris Hedges Report
The Chris Hedges YouTube Channel
224,439 views Apr 12, 2026 The Chris Hedges Report
Amidst the U.S.-Iran negotiations, Alastair Crooke says, Iran is not incentivized to end the war. It wants to "break the paradigm" — and restore its global status.
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<미국의 수에즈 위기: 알래스토어 크룩과의 대담> 요약 및 평론
[요약] 미국의 중동 패권 몰락과 이란의 새로운 패러다임
본 보고서는 크리스 헤지스가 전직 영국 외교관 알래스토어 크룩과 함께 <에픽 퓨리 작전(Operation Epic Fury)> 이후의 중동 정세를 분석한 내용을 담고 있다
1. 전쟁의 결과와 이란의 승리
이란은 비록 인프라와 지도부 암살 등 막대한 피해를 입었음에도 불구하고 전쟁의 실질적인 승자로 평가받는다
2. 호르무즈 해협을 통한 경제적 반격
이란은 호르무즈 해협을 통과하는 유조선에 척당 200만 달러의 통행료를 부과하며 연간 1조 달러에 육박하는 수익을 기대하고 있다
3. 이스라엘의 변수와 트럼프의 딜레마
이스라엘은 이란의 궤멸과 분할을 목표로 전쟁 지속을 압박하고 있다
[평론] 제국적 오만의 종말과 비대칭 전술의 승리
본 대담은 21세기 국제 정치의 근본적인 지각 변동을 날카롭게 포착하고 있다. <미국의 수에즈 위기>라는 비유는 과거 영국과 프랑스가 수에즈 운하 국유화에 대응하다 제국으로서의 위신을 상실했던 역사가 현재 미국에 재현되고 있음을 시사한다
1. 비대칭 전쟁의 재정의
이란의 전략은 현대전의 승패가 단순한 화력의 우위가 아닌, <회복 탄력성>과 <거부 전략>에 있음을 보여준다. 수천억 달러의 첨단 무기 체계가 중국산 저가 기만체와 지하 800m의 요새화된 미사일 기지 앞에서 무력화된 지점은 시사하는 바가 크다
2. 지정학적 패러다임의 전환
가장 주목할 점은 이란이 시도하는 <경제적 탈문화화(Deculturation)>이다
3. 이데올로기와 실존적 저항
크룩은 이란의 신세대들이 보여주는 희생정신과 문명적 자부심을 전쟁의 중요한 동력으로 꼽는다
결론적으로, 이 보고서는 미국이 중동에서 휘두르던 절대적 영향력이 이제 돌이킬 수 없는 쇠퇴의 길로 접어들었음을 경고한다. 이스라엘의 광기 어린 전쟁 지속 의지와 미국의 경제적 취약성이 결합된 현재의 상황은, 서구 중심의 단극 체제가 다극화된 새로운 세계 질서로 이행하는 과정에서 겪는 극심한 진통이라 할 수 있다.
세진님, 이 요약과 평론이 원하시는 분석 방향에 부합하는지 궁금하네요. 추가로 더 깊이 파고들고 싶은 특정 섹션이 있을까요? [cite: 2025-11-01]
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Transcript
0:1010 secondsThe Trump administration and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire and two weeks of negotiations which began today in Islamabad following six weeks of
0:1919 secondswarfare. The basis of the negotiations will be a 10-point proposal put forward by Iran, not Trump's vaunted 15-point
0:2828 secondsplan that includes a call for a cessation of all hostilities in the region, including in Lebanon, where Israel has been carrying out punishing air strikes, reparations paid to Iran,
0:3939 secondsthe release of billions of dollars of frozen Iranian assets, a withdrawal of US military bases in the region, the
0:4747 secondslifting of all sanctions on Iran, and a permanent and formalized end to hostilities. The agreement calls for the
0:5555 secondsopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's daily oil and gas shipments are transited. Iran,
1:021 minute, 2 secondshowever, has so far refused to open the straight, insisting that Israel's attacks on Lebanon must first end and
1:091 minute, 9 secondsthe billions in frozen assets must be released to Iran. While Iran has clearly suffered devastating blows to its
1:171 minute, 17 secondsinfrastructure, manufacturing and military assets, including naval and air assets, while it has seen senior
1:251 minute, 25 secondsleaders, including the Supreme Leader Ali Hami, assassinated, none of the objectives set out by Israel and the US
1:321 minute, 32 secondshave been met. The Iranian regime remains in power. It controls the strait. It retains significant missile
1:391 minute, 39 secondsand drone stockpiles and it still possesses enriched uranium. Iran is the clear winner of Operation Epic Fury. The
1:481 minute, 48 secondsUS is indisputably in a weaker position than when the war began. Trump has at the same time caused incalculable damage
1:561 minute, 56 secondsto America's moral standing by taking part in an unprovoked attack on Iran and openly advocating war crimes, including
2:052 minutes, 5 secondsa call to obliterate Iranian civilization and take out civilian infrastructure, including power plants.
2:122 minutes, 12 secondsHe squandered an estimated $ 39 billion on the war, costs that will be felt at home, especially with rising prices. The
2:212 minutes, 21 secondsglobal economy remains in crisis and even if hostilities do not resume will take months to recover. Iran, most
2:292 minutes, 29 secondsimportantly, is now the indisputable master of the strait, charging tankers $2 million to transit through the strait. It has a strangle hold on the
2:382 minutes, 38 secondsglobal economy. The new Iranian leadership centered around the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is more
2:452 minutes, 45 secondsdefiant and intrigent than the old leadership killed in Israeli and US targeted assassinations. This is bad
2:532 minutes, 53 secondsnews for the US and especially for Israel. US and Israeli strikes killed more than 1,700 Iranian civilians,
3:013 minutes, 1 secondincluding 254 children. 3 million Iranians have been displaced from their homes along with 1 million Lebanese. Add to these numbers
3:103 minutes, 10 secondsthe two million Palestinians displaced by the genocide in Gaza. 6 million people rendered homeless. Joining me to
3:183 minutes, 18 secondsdiscuss the war on Iran is Alistister Crook, a former British diplomat who served for many years in the Middle East. Working as a security adviser to the EU special envoy to the Middle East,
3:293 minutes, 29 secondsas well as helping lead efforts to set up negotiations and truses between Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and other
3:363 minutes, 36 secondsPalestinian resistant groups with Israel. He was instrumental in establishing the 2002 ceasefire between
3:443 minutes, 44 secondsHamas and Israel. He is also the author of resistance the essence of the Islamist revolution which analyzes the
3:523 minutes, 52 secondsascendancy of Islamic movements in the Middle East. I'll just begin Alistister with a very broad question. Where are we at this moment?
4:034 minutes, 3 secondsIt's a very bold question. It's a very good question because um this is not really clear at the moment. Um first of
4:134 minutes, 13 secondsall um although we call it a ceasefire uh it is not really a ceasefire in the sense that a ceasefire normally has some
4:214 minutes, 21 secondsunderstandings prior understandings that underpin a ceasefire. We do have uh a halt of if
4:304 minutes, 30 secondsyou like military activities across or supposed to be across all fronts.
4:364 minutes, 36 secondsAlthough in the introduction you pointed out um that um Israel was attacking Lebanon causing many deaths and
4:454 minutes, 45 secondscasualties in the process in a deliberate act um to exclude Lebanon from the whole process. Um what's
4:544 minutes, 54 secondshappening at the moment is that the um two there are two delegations in Islamabad. They are not meeting directly. They are meeting indirectly.
5:055 minutes, 5 secondsUm they are quite big delegations because there are delegations of experts that are involved in this process. It is
5:145 minutes, 14 secondshinged on the um 10-point plan or framework um that Iran insisted there
5:245 minutes, 24 secondsshould be the precondition for the meeting to take place was that the
5:305 minutes, 30 secondsUnited States should agree that this was an acceptable basis for discussion. Um
5:385 minutes, 38 secondsthe Americans agreed to that. Now where we are in this at the moment is as I
5:455 minutes, 45 secondsunderstand it from Islamabad is that um nothing really very much is
5:545 minutes, 54 secondshappening. Um there are the general discussions but the Iranians
6:016 minutes, 1 secondbelieve that the United States have not fulfilled some of the undertakings they gave to Pakistan.
6:116 minutes, 11 secondsParticularly there seems to be hitches on the release of the frozen assets and there are other elements that are taking
6:196 minutes, 19 secondsplace that are not very clear at the moment. I think it would be better to describe this particularly from an
6:286 minutes, 28 secondsIranian point of view. This was an effort, if you like, to have um at least
6:356 minutes, 35 secondsa halt in the military um side of the war to explore whether there was any room for maneuver politically. I mean,
6:476 minutes, 47 secondswe called that in the Middle East a hoodna rather than a cease. It it's a a temporary truce, if you like, really to
6:546 minutes, 54 secondsexplore if there is political will to to move forward. uh and as I understand it
7:017 minutes, 1 secondthis moment that is not clear. So it's not clear whether the negotiations will continue past today or or whether they
7:107 minutes, 10 secondswill end today. I don't think there is any great expectation of an agreement
7:187 minutes, 18 secondscertainly from the Iranian side. Um, and I think that we may find that we finish
7:257 minutes, 25 secondsthe day with nothing really solid emerging from this and the continual
7:347 minutes, 34 secondsprospect that there will be military action initiated
7:407 minutes, 40 secondsum by Israel either again in Lebanon where Israel is insistent that it should
7:477 minutes, 47 secondsnot be included in this process. and that this is quite separate and that they're in discussion with the Lebanese
7:557 minutes, 55 secondsgovernment uh in order to have the demilitarization, the disarmament of
8:028 minutes, 2 secondsHezbollah and that's a separate issue and can't be included. The Iranian position is very simple.
8:108 minutes, 10 secondsIt's going to be either a ceasefire for all or a ceasefire for nobody.
8:178 minutes, 17 secondsIf the Israelis insist that Lebanon is outside of these agreements and outside of these discussions, then in that case,
8:288 minutes, 28 secondsIsrael can be outside of these discussions and Iran will continue the war on on Israel. So I think it's
8:368 minutes, 36 secondsunclear how far we we are going to get but the expectations uh as I hear or judge from from there
8:448 minutes, 44 secondsare are not very optimistic that something uh uh will emerge and and it's not surprising. I mean I don't think it's surprising. I'm sure it isn't
8:538 minutes, 53 secondssurprising to you because there are enormous contradictions in this whole process. They are the
9:019 minutes, 1 seconddifferences in the interests of the United States uh and of Iran and what Iran's objectives
9:109 minutes, 10 secondsare which are very poorly understood I believe in the United States and poorly understood more generally in the west
9:199 minutes, 19 secondshow serious they are the objectives um for this war I mean in a nutshell the
9:269 minutes, 26 secondsobjectives of Iran are to blow blow up the existing paradigm. Uh that is a
9:349 minutes, 34 secondsrevolutionary objective to blow it up completely um in order that they can escape if you
9:439 minutes, 43 secondslike from the cage in which they've been held for 48 years of surrounded by US
9:529 minutes, 52 secondsmilitary forces um besieged by tariffs by restrictions UN resolutions s political isolation,
10:0510 minutes, 5 secondseconomic, cultural um if you like um uh boycott. So uh this is what they are
10:1410 minutes, 14 secondstrying to break out from break out. It's not the same cage that the Hamas and the
10:2110 minutes, 21 secondsPalestinians are in in Gaza, which is got a literal fence and drones and monitoring of it. Um uh but Iran is
10:3110 minutes, 31 secondsintent on breaking the paradigm and the key to breaking that paradigm of course
10:3710 minutes, 37 secondsis the Hormus and their control over the Hormus which is um the uh centerpiece of their strategic objectives.
10:4910 minutes, 49 secondsDo they have the capacity in your view to break that paradigm?
10:5410 minutes, 54 secondsYes, I think they they have moved in that direction. I I noticed what you said in the introduction about the
11:0311 minutes, 3 secondsdevastation that had been visited on Iran. And I know this will seem counterintuitive to many of your
11:1111 minutes, 11 secondslisteners, but in fact, Iran has emerged uh from this one month war or so in a
11:2111 minutes, 21 secondsmuch stronger position than it did from the um 12-day war in June. it is in much
11:2911 minutes, 29 secondsstronger position. Um there is a lot of propaganda on all sides in this war. Um but there are some things that uh uh one
11:3811 minutes, 38 secondscan say uh very clearly uh that um Iran
11:4511 minutes, 45 secondshas uh uh affected enormous damage on American bases uh in the Gulf area. Um
11:5511 minutes, 55 secondsit has destroyed all the radar abilities. Um I think altogether something like seven radars been um destroyed in the first phase of the war.
12:0712 minutes, 7 secondsum they have um not only destroyed that they have complete control over the
12:1412 minutes, 14 secondshormones and the and they have still at this time you of course Iran doesn't
12:2112 minutes, 21 secondshave an air force and therefore cannot have air dominance but instead of which they have created missile dominance over
12:2912 minutes, 29 secondsthe airspace um of the whole region and including Israel Um the damage to their
12:3812 minutes, 38 secondsmissile capabilities has been grossly overstated by the old tactic of just counting, this goes back to Vietnam,
12:4912 minutes, 49 secondscounting air strikes. And one of the things that has been most notable in this period is before the war, Iran
12:5812 minutes, 58 secondsbought from China a huge number of decoys, decoy planes, decoy missiles. And one of the things um not
13:0813 minutes, 8 secondsonly are they very effective in their appearance, but I didn't know until recently is they have a heat source in
13:1413 minutes, 14 secondsthem. So they are hot. And so of course that shows up on the American sensors um
13:2213 minutes, 22 secondsand the Israeli sensors as a real target, a real plane, a real missile um
13:2813 minutes, 28 secondswhen it's really only a decoy. The missile systems are buried deep in
13:3513 minutes, 35 secondsmountains. Um the the main one um a main missile is 800 m under a granite
13:4413 minutes, 44 secondsmountain. Uh it has a whole railway system in the mountain and that carries
13:5213 minutes, 52 secondsthe missiles from the cities from the magazine along a railway track um to an
14:0014 minutesentrance. A door opens, the missile is fired from the railway line and then the
14:0614 minutes, 6 secondsdoor shuts. And although it's been bombed innumerable times, part of that,
14:1214 minutes, 12 secondsyou know, 16,000 strikes we have made on Iran, they still it still functions.
14:2014 minutes, 20 secondsHalf an hour after the air strike, the missile comes out and continues. The mountain is getting slightly damaged and
14:2814 minutes, 28 secondsblack, but nothing is affected. The missile cities their command system is
14:3514 minutes, 35 secondsfunctioning thanks to the mosaic uh decentralization of command dispersement
14:4214 minutes, 42 secondsof command. It's created almost a sort of mechanical structure
14:4814 minutes, 48 secondsthat snaps into action as soon as Iran is attacked or soon as soon as there is
14:5514 minutes, 55 secondsa attempted decapitation strike. I mean they started instituting this after what they saw in 2003 with the attack
15:0415 minutes, 4 secondsAmerican attack on Baghdad. Uh that they had to find a way um of countering this
15:1115 minutes, 11 secondsand countering the air attacks that that took place in in in Baghdad. So I mean
15:1815 minutes, 18 secondsit's impossible to give precise figures but I believe that the amount of deaths in Thran
15:2715 minutes, 27 secondsare probably less than in the 12-day uh war. Um they did this simply by a very
15:3615 minutes, 36 secondssimple they learned from the 12-day war empty every public building completely.
15:4215 minutes, 42 secondsSo, universities, everything are completely empty. All the government offices empty. And so, Israel has been
15:5315 minutes, 53 secondsdestroying those, counting those up as a huge damage caused to Iran. Um, and the most significant thing I would say is
16:0216 minutes, 2 secondsthe financial aspect of it. In this uh in the first month of this war, um Iran
16:1016 minutes, 10 secondshas earned double from the sale of its oil um
16:1816 minutes, 18 secondsfrom its oil sales and tankers. Double what has it has earned in any month for several years past. It's earned double.
16:2816 minutes, 28 secondsIf you take just one case about a week ago last Sunday, there were five tankers loading at Cog
16:3616 minutes, 36 secondswith 7.7 um a million uh barrels of oil that on
16:4316 minutes, 43 secondsone day earned Iran $850 million um from uh just the sales. Then of
16:5216 minutes, 52 secondscourse they are earning uh from 2 million from every tanker and vessel
16:5916 minutes, 59 secondsthat passes through Hormuz as part of the toll that they are insisting um that
17:0617 minutes, 6 secondsships have to pay. So the economic situation uh is they calculate one can calculate
17:1317 minutes, 13 secondsfrom these figures not just me but others have done that that you know on on this basis um the Iran Iran could
17:2317 minutes, 23 secondsearn a little short of a trillion dollars a year it by through the control of the hormos but it doesn't stop there
17:3117 minutes, 31 secondsand I will explain why because it's also about supply lines it controls supply lines, helium, sulfuric acid, all of
17:4117 minutes, 41 secondsthese essential elements to our man supply lines for manufacturing technical
17:4917 minutes, 49 secondsitems and also for manufacturing chips and things. Um the the chip factory in
17:5517 minutes, 55 secondsTaiwan is almost at a standstill now because they need helium and they need liqufied gas in order to to make chips.
18:0518 minutes, 5 secondsSo supply lines, food, fertilizer, this is it. you it's like if you like compare
18:1318 minutes, 13 secondsit to what happened with China when um Trump imposed a huge tariff on China 155 I think percent at one point
18:2218 minutes, 22 secondsit was and presidency said well okay but I'm putting some restrictions actually
18:2918 minutes, 29 secondson rare earths and other commodities and so that's going to be uh what you're
18:3618 minutes, 36 secondsgoing to have to do without and of it changed um and so really that the
18:4318 minutes, 43 secondsChinese tactic is also part of the homo structure. It's not just the sale of oil, not just the tolls, but it is about
18:5318 minutes, 53 secondssupply lines and it is also something much more complicated which is the insistence that the cargos be paid in Juan.
19:0319 minutes, 3 secondsAnd this is a part of if you like deculturizing the attempt to deculture the whole of
19:1219 minutes, 12 secondsthe GCC area which is part it has always been the central hub of if you like the
19:2219 minutes, 22 secondsdollar hedgemony. This is the center o of of the petro dollar and it was
19:2919 minutes, 29 secondsencouraged from 73 when it started you know to keep the oil price up because all of the proceeds go to Wall Street.
19:3819 minutes, 38 secondsWall Street then leverage it in the financial world. And so you have in in
19:4619 minutes, 46 secondsin the Gulf States a highly financialized type of economy um with all of the data
19:5519 minutes, 55 secondscenters and others there. And Iran is telling the Gulf States if you want to enjoy a relationship with Iran, you have
20:0220 minutes, 2 secondsto get rid of Microsoft, Amazon, you have to get rid of these. What do you
20:0820 minutes, 8 secondsneed? um this huge 30 billion data center in the UAE. You have to get rid
20:1620 minutes, 16 secondsof this. This is if you like part of uh I wouldn't call it a cultural revolution
20:2320 minutes, 23 secondsbecause it's a financial cultural uh revolution um that the um Iranians are
20:3020 minutes, 30 secondsare seeking to establish. That's what I mean by breaking the paradigm. I'm sorry it's a complicated explanation, but it's
20:3820 minutes, 38 secondsbigger than just, you know, can ships go up or down or moves. It is a much bigger, more ambitious plan than is properly appreciated.
20:5020 minutes, 50 secondsSome people have described this as the equivalent of our Suez crisis. That was
20:5620 minutes, 56 seconds1956 when the British and the French Go Abdaser nationalized the Suez Canal.
21:0421 minutes, 4 secondsuh they tried to take it back. It was a fiasco. They had to retreat. Well, along with the Israelis. Would you agree?
21:1121 minutes, 11 secondsYes. I I would say it's the same because there's really if anyone knows the
21:2021 minutes, 20 secondsgeography of Homos I mean the literal what it looks like the landscape of Homos it's very evident that there is no
21:2921 minutes, 29 secondsway um that the Americans as things stand this has been planned for a long
21:3621 minutes, 36 secondstime by the uh Iranians uh the whole of that Mo's um uh sea line is bordered by caves.
21:5021 minutes, 50 secondsIt's cliffs and in those cliffs are anti- shship missiles. Um under Homos they have um submers submersible drones.
22:0222 minutes, 2 secondsWe haven't seen them used yet, but these submersible drones have tunnels under
22:0922 minutes, 9 secondsthe hormones waterway so that the drones can come out under sea, not visible, not
22:1622 minutes, 16 secondscan't be seen by anyone. They have lithium batteries that can last for 4 days. They have the ability to loiter
22:2422 minutes, 24 secondsand they have AI capacity to then choose and select targets. Then they have um
22:3122 minutes, 31 secondssurface drones, high-speed, very high-speed drones with explosive. And
22:3822 minutes, 38 secondswhat is unnoticed but is crucial to this is they have these mini submarines,
22:4422 minutes, 44 secondstwoman submarines, small submarines. Um but they can operate in the shallow waters of the Hormos Straits and the
22:5322 minutes, 53 secondsHormos waterway. and they are equipped with anti-ship missiles and also with these drones too. It would be a suicide
23:0323 minutes, 3 secondsto try and put a landing craft uh down the straits. The straits themselves are under far control from because on the
23:1223 minutes, 12 secondsother side of Homo the that is a sort of um a bend around um the peninsula and
23:2023 minutes, 20 secondsthat behind that are mountains and they are riddled with caves and imp placements of artillery. So the whole of
23:2823 minutes, 28 secondsthe hormon straits you don't need to have you know drones or missiles they control it by artillery fire. it's
23:3723 minutes, 37 secondswithin range and that exists right up to Car Island. So any ship trying to go up
23:4323 minutes, 43 secondsthis uh waterway um will will be sunk um or damaged and told uh to leave. And if you land forces on the Iranian side,
23:5723 minutes, 57 secondsthere will be how do you how do you get them there? How do you sustain them? How do you resupply them? How do we
24:0524 minutes, 5 secondsexfiltrate them? You going to land them on Iran? It's desolate that part of Iran. There are no it's there are no
24:1424 minutes, 14 secondsforests. There are in other parts of Iran, but this is just desolate. And Cog Island is a very small place. It is even
24:2324 minutes, 23 secondsif you landed them on Cog Island, I've been to Carg Island. Um it is just a small flat area um where the um the the
24:3324 minutes, 33 secondsterminal for the pipelines from inside Iran come and load tankers. Um if you if you take it, what is that going to do?
24:4424 minutes, 44 secondsAnd anyway, even if you stop the Iranian oil from flowing um to Cog, um then all
24:5224 minutes, 52 secondsIran has to do is to close Homus for 3 4 weeks and the pain in terms of oil
25:0125 minutes, 1 secondprice, inflation, markets, valuations uh will be felt very quickly. So it's
25:0925 minutes, 9 secondsgoing to be very hard to see. This is one of the aspects of these negotiations is the United States has very few cards
25:1725 minutes, 17 secondsto play and has one huge disadvantage which is that ultimately as we saw in
25:2425 minutes, 24 secondsterms of Lebanon. um you know the the the key player in this is not in
25:3125 minutes, 31 secondsIslamabad and that is um Israel and Israel um overall has been very clear.
25:4125 minutes, 41 secondsyou know, we follow the Israeli press very closely, the Hebrew press
25:4825 minutes, 48 secondsand um their aim in in in in the attack
25:5425 minutes, 54 secondson Lebanon um was first of all um to enforce more time from Trump in order to
26:0326 minutes, 3 secondscontinue the attack on Hezbollah. Just to be clear, it you know if a few Hezbollah have been killed in this,
26:1126 minutes, 11 secondsthere have been hundreds and altogether many more hundreds of casualties of ordinary Lebanese civilians got nothing
26:1926 minutes, 19 secondsto do with Hezbollah. They're trying to keep it apart by coming to an
26:2626 minutes, 26 secondsarrangement by the with the prime minister of Lebanon that this is a separate issue. We're going to negotiate the disarmament of Hezbollah with them.
26:3526 minutes, 35 secondsTherefore, it's not part of the issue.
26:3826 minutes, 38 secondsAnd as I say, you know, the Iranian position is very the equation is very clear. The equation is it's a ceasefire
26:4626 minutes, 46 secondson all fronts or it's a ceasefire on none. And that's what they will be saying to the delegation, the American
26:5626 minutes, 56 secondsdelegation uh in in Islamabad.
27:0127 minutes, 1 secondDoesn't Israel seek through Lebanon? I mean, Trump initially agreed that uh ceasefire in Lebanon was part of the
27:0927 minutes, 9 secondsdeal. Then he had a phone call with Netanyahu and immediately backtracked.
27:1327 minutes, 13 secondsUm I also want to note that when Israel carried out this massive attack, I think over 10 minutes, it was uh there was no
27:2227 minutes, 22 secondswarning. I think the numbers of civilian dead are up to 2,000. It was I mean to describe it as a terror attack is
27:3027 minutes, 30 secondsprobably not far but it seems that this is Israel's and and you're right Israel is not an Islamabad but was also not uh
27:3927 minutes, 39 secondsa party to the uh ceasefire agreement brokered by Pakistan. Uh is this
27:4927 minutes, 49 secondsIsrael's uh tool to essentially sabotage any kind of agreement? Yes, it's very clear that
27:5827 minutes, 58 secondsum and from in the Hebrew press it's expressed um for example Ben Davidid
28:0528 minutes, 5 secondssaid well of course you know the attempt now to insist on the disarmment of Hzbollah is likely to provoke a civil
28:1228 minutes, 12 secondswar in Lebanon but then adds afterwards but that's been the aim all along
28:1828 minutes, 18 secondsand similarly um uh we notice that um I noticed that I think it was yesterday
28:2628 minutes, 26 secondsthe deadline for the disarmament of Hamas has ended. So if Lebanon if Israel
28:3328 minutes, 33 secondsdecides to leave Lebanon quiet for the moment, it's just as likely that we're going to see a massive military
28:4028 minutes, 40 secondsoperation um in uh in Gaza or in and in in in the West Bank. Again, the
28:4928 minutes, 49 secondsobjective is quite clear when you read the Hebrew press. I mean uh and these are the you know these are serious
28:5728 minutes, 57 secondspolitical correspondents. We've been following them for years. We know the ones who are close to the leadership and the ones who are in the opposition and
29:0529 minutes, 5 secondsthe ones that are close to the leadership are are are very clear. Um we want the war to continue. And in public opinion that is also the case. 93%
29:1929 minutes, 19 secondsof um the Jewish residents of Israel want the war to continue. Um so this is
29:2729 minutes, 27 secondswhat is being pursued. How to put the pressure on Trump to continue the war
29:3429 minutes, 34 secondsbecause they want um Iran destroyed, not just um into some sort of agreement on
29:4129 minutes, 41 secondsnuclear issues or something. They want it destroyed. They want to set up a whole series of ethnosctarian
29:4929 minutes, 49 secondsmini states um on it. Beluchi state um Kurdish state
29:5729 minutes, 57 secondswhatever set them at odds with one another and have a a completely weakened Iran. So Iran is not going to go back into that paradigm.
30:0930 minutes, 9 secondsWhy should it under any circumstances?
30:1130 minutes, 11 secondsthey can see that and now they are in the process of trying to make a strategic push a shift to change that
30:2230 minutes, 22 secondsparadigm uh and to get out of this and to have sanctions lifted. Um the one of
30:2830 minutes, 28 secondsthe points of the homos exercise is because people are paying tolls and
30:3530 minutes, 35 secondsthose tolls are if you like breaking the sanctions siege on Iran and that's the
30:4330 minutes, 43 secondsonly way you get your tankers out and increasingly um states are coming and do and agreeing and trying to make arrangements with
30:5130 minutes, 51 secondsIran. I mean in including Asian states particularly Asian states of course Iran
30:5930 minutes, 59 secondsI mean India and Pakistan but also South Korea Japan they're all making arrangements to pay the toll and to be
31:0931 minutes, 9 secondsable to um access energy um through HOS.
31:1431 minutes, 14 secondsSo I mean it is breaking in a small way but breaking the sanctions but they want
31:2231 minutes, 22 secondssanctions lifted completely and they are using the one
31:3031 minutes, 30 secondsthe opposition of the one and also the attempt to tell the um all of the the
31:3831 minutes, 38 secondsGulf states that they have now um to abandon their close economic ties. with the United States if they want to have a
31:4631 minutes, 46 secondsrelationship with run and it's not just the American bases but it's also the Microsoft the Amazon that part of the if
31:5631 minutes, 56 secondsyou like the structure um that has has created a an environment an economic
32:0432 minutes, 4 secondsculture of the whole Gulf which is enimical to Iran.
32:1032 minutes, 10 secondsI know this is a difficult question, but how do you read the Trump administration? Do you think that they are aware of how cornered they are?
32:2132 minutes, 21 secondsNo, I I don't I don't think so. I mean,
32:2432 minutes, 24 secondsI think this has been a complete misreading first of all of the nature of Iran. I think they thought that there
32:3332 minutes, 33 secondswas going to that Iran was a house of cards and was going to collapse. We saw that very clearly from the New York
32:4032 minutes, 40 secondsTimes account of the 11th of February meeting, which incidentally is only half the story because we were following in
32:4832 minutes, 48 secondsthe Hebrew press on the 29th of December when Netanyahu came and had the summit
32:5632 minutes, 56 secondsat Mara Lago um with with Trump. It was there that that he laid down very clearly to Trump first and he said, you know, uh, forget the nuclear issue.
33:0833 minutes, 8 secondsYou're not to pursue that. You have to concentrate on the one issue. We have to end the missiles. End them because the Iranians are not just re replacing them.
33:2133 minutes, 21 secondsThey're creating entirely new umbrella, a new paradigm. And if it isn't done,
33:2833 minutes, 28 secondsthey will be, you know, inviable. We won't be able to attack them again in the future. So you have to put that as
33:3433 minutes, 34 secondsyour first priority and not the nuclear issue. And if you try to get out of this by doing the nuclear issue, Netanyahu
33:4233 minutes, 42 secondstold him, quote, from many sources in the Hebrew press, we won't give you a kosher certificate for that. we're not
33:5133 minutes, 51 secondsgoing to accept another sort of JCPOA type solution.
33:5633 minutes, 56 secondsSo, and if you don't have that, you won't have the support of the right in in in the United States. So, you have to
34:0334 minutes, 3 secondsdo this and there has to be this attack on Iran. And according to all of the the newspapers that was agreed in principle
34:1234 minutes, 12 secondson the 29th of January, well before the 11th of February meeting that the New York Times has described and again
34:2034 minutes, 20 secondsduring that it it is clear Trump was convinced this was going to be a very
34:2734 minutes, 27 secondsshort war days at most you know one weekend started on on you know Saturday
34:3334 minutes, 33 secondsand by the time markets open on Monday you the supreme leader would be dead and the whole thing would be um moving
34:4134 minutes, 41 secondstowards um a regime change in in in Iran and it very clearly hasn't happened that
34:5034 minutes, 50 secondsin fact something quite different is happening. It's very hard to describe this correctly and I'm not trying to,
34:5934 minutes, 59 secondsyou know, um, this isn't wishful thinking, my part, but it's quite clear
35:0535 minutes, 5 secondsto me that there is a spirit of the Iranian revolution in its new form has
35:1435 minutes, 14 secondscome back, particularly amongst the young. You can see it when when Trump threatened when Trump threatened um you
35:2335 minutes, 23 secondsknow to end the civilization, the Iranian civilization,
35:2835 minutes, 28 secondseveryone streamed out onto the bridges onto the nuclear power station and said,
35:3435 minutes, 34 seconds"Okay, here we are." You know, if you're going to kill us, you kill us. I mean
35:4035 minutes, 40 secondsthis reflects a deep she readiness to ex accept sacrifice personal sacrifice in
35:5035 minutes, 50 secondsthe interests of your community in the interests of Iran as Iran as a civilization a symbol of civilization.
35:5935 minutes, 59 secondsSo there is a powerful thing particularly amongst the young people.
36:0436 minutes, 4 secondsNow they are much more um if you like um fired up
36:1136 minutes, 11 secondsafter the killing of the supreme leader and much more fired up a young um women,
36:1936 minutes, 19 secondsboys, men um it is something that is quite important and in my belief is
36:2636 minutes, 26 secondshaving an effect not just in the region which it is the success of Iran in this
36:3536 minutes, 35 secondsperiod. But in Russia and I'm told in China too, the Chinese have been quite
36:4336 minutes, 43 secondsum they didn't expect it. Iran, they thought Iran would manage, but they've been quite surprised at the success that Iran has had and its um its planning,
36:5636 minutes, 56 secondsits thinking, and the if you like asymmetric war that they've been planning for for for two decades. So,
37:0437 minutes, 4 secondsit's having an effect in in in China and in Russia, too.
37:1037 minutes, 10 secondsJust as a footnote, we should add that the Persian civilization is 7,000 years old. It's lasted a lot longer than uh
37:1937 minutes, 19 secondsthe American experiment. Um uh but does the Trump administration at this point in Islamabad realize that
37:2837 minutes, 28 secondsthey don't have many options left? that Iran is basically holding all the cards
37:3637 minutes, 36 secondsor do you think that they are foolish enough to get sucked back into a resumption of the war?
37:4437 minutes, 44 secondsUm I think first of all the most important element in this of course is Israel because it is quite likely that
37:5437 minutes, 54 secondsIsrael will pursue the war. Whether it'll do it first of all via Lebanon or
38:0138 minutes, 1 secondwhether it'll do it in Gaza or whether it will do it directly but as far as they're concerned um the war is unfinished business.
38:1238 minutes, 12 secondsNow, this is a paradox, a real paradox,
38:1538 minutes, 15 secondsbecause at the same time that I'm saying 93%
38:2038 minutes, 20 secondspursue and support war on Iran and the destruction of Iran in the polls, it's
38:2838 minutes, 28 secondseven higher on the right than this is an average um the 93%. the same time I'm
38:3538 minutes, 35 secondssaying that the signs of great distress inside Israel too. Um the chief of staff
38:4138 minutes, 41 secondsof the army um has said you know IDF is on the point of collapsing. He went to
38:4838 minutes, 48 secondsthe last security cabinet meeting and he said I've got 10 red lights for you gentlemen because we cannot survive with
38:5838 minutes, 58 secondsthis. We are losing heavily many men in Lebanon.
39:0339 minutes, 3 secondsThey had nearly in in that very short period they were there nearly 100 MOVA were were were destroyed.
39:1139 minutes, 11 secondsThis is the Israeli battle the Israeli battle tank you're referring to.
39:1439 minutes, 14 secondsYes, sorry. The main battle tank and many of them with their crew. Some crew got up but many did not. They're losing
39:2339 minutes, 23 secondsum troops um when they tried to invade and form a buffer line in in Lebanon. Uh
39:2939 minutes, 29 secondsthey were routed. Um there is a new Hezbollah. It is gone dark. You don't see it. The Israelis complain, you know,
39:3839 minutes, 38 secondsthey're like ghosts. They appear and they vanish and you don't see them again. Um instead they've evolved.
39:4539 minutes, 45 secondsthey've changed it and they fire their missiles straight across um to Tel Aviv.
39:5239 minutes, 52 secondsSo there's a big fight in in in Israel because um the defense minister wants a
39:5939 minutes, 59 secondsbuffer line. They want to level all the houses for 7 8 kilometers in the south
40:0640 minutes, 6 secondsof Le just destroy them like Gaza and have that as a buffer line. And the the defense staff say to him, "But you know
40:1440 minutes, 14 secondsthis is stupid. What are you doing this for?" Because Hezbollah has most of its missile capacity north of the Leani. The
40:2240 minutes, 22 secondsLeani is a river that divides Lebanon about just less than halfway to the north and they have them north of it.
40:3140 minutes, 31 secondsThe south has always been seen as more of a she preserve. And so the they have
40:3840 minutes, 38 secondsand this is where the crisis is. On the one hand the population wants the war to go on. On the other hand the military
40:4640 minutes, 46 secondsside uh in Israel are saying very clearly we have achieved none of our objectives
40:5340 minutes, 53 secondsin Iran. We haven't had seen the the the the state collapse. It wasn't a house of cards. We don't believe there can be a
41:0241 minutes, 2 secondscolor revolution in Iran. Uh we haven't ended the nuclear process. We haven't
41:0941 minutes, 9 secondsgot the enriched uranium back. We haven't caused any real damage. They still are able to fire missiles at us
41:1741 minutes, 17 secondsregularly and with very damaging effects. So we have failed in Iran and
41:2541 minutes, 25 secondswe have failed clearly. We all thought that Hezbollah had been completely decapacated by um the killing of its
41:3441 minutes, 34 secondsleadership and Hassan Nra and now we find that actually they've emerged even more effectively than than they were
41:4341 minutes, 43 secondsvery effective new leaders and and and new structures. And in Gaza, who's
41:5041 minutes, 50 secondsrunning Gaza? It's still running Gaza and they are re-equipping and they are
41:5641 minutes, 56 secondsre-preparing for uh another conflict with Iran. So all of this has failed and
42:0442 minutes, 4 secondsthere's going to be no grand victory. So there is this great confrontation and and you know it could be that it is
42:1242 minutes, 12 secondsIsrael that um calls for a ceasefire first even before just as they did in
42:1942 minutes, 19 secondsthe 7-day uh a seven uh 12-day war um after 4 days started asking for it. So it's possible because the strains and the strains on ordinary people. Yes,
42:3042 minutes, 30 secondsthey support the destruction of Iran wholeheartedly.
42:3542 minutes, 35 secondsYet they are not ready to go on going down to the shelters and spending every
42:4142 minutes, 41 secondsnight for you know 8 or 10 hours in a shelter day after day after day. And the
42:5042 minutes, 50 secondsstrains on the civil population are great. So I can't give you a a a very simple answer as what's going to happen
42:5942 minutes, 59 secondsfrom all of this. But don't forget there are elections coming up and um Netanyahu still has a court case
43:0843 minutes, 8 secondswhich is about to resume I think tomorrow. Um and uh he has to win these elections to avoid uh the outcome of the
43:1843 minutes, 18 secondscourt case which might mean imprisonment. And so he's desperate to keep the war in Iran going because this
43:2643 minutes, 26 secondsis you know the to keep the um the fantasy if you like now or the imaginary
43:3343 minutes, 33 secondsvictory of a war in Iran and partly that was what they he was doing in Lebanon is
43:4043 minutes, 40 secondssaying look okay we haven't won against but look we can really hit them and we hit them and um so
43:5043 minutes, 50 secondsIt's very complicated the situation um I in Israel uh as as a consequence
43:5843 minutes, 58 secondsand very complicated in the United States. I mean I'm speaking to you from Europe and you're in the United States but you will well understand. I mean,
44:1044 minutes, 10 secondsthe problem is that, you know, Trump needs to clear the decks if he can
44:1744 minutes, 17 secondsbefore the summer because the midterm elections are coming. Um, the economic
44:2444 minutes, 24 secondssituation could turn very nasty. Um, as I say, within even 3 weeks, the supply
44:3144 minutes, 31 secondsline shortages may show up. Um, the price of oil is still high. um price of
44:3744 minutes, 37 secondsgasoline is high and so an economic crisis in the debt market or elsewhere
44:4544 minutes, 45 secondsbecause we know very clearly that there's been a huge move out of the dollar. People seeking other forms of secure assets at this uncertain time.
44:5944 minutes, 59 secondsCertainly we see that in in in the um in in in the Gulf. I mean much of the money
45:0645 minutes, 6 secondshas been moving out of the Gulf but not back into the dollars been moving into Juan and going to China and Russia has
45:1445 minutes, 14 secondsbeen pursuing this and telling the Europeans if you want any Russian oil or gas you have to pay in one
45:2345 minutes, 23 secondsand you know America European banks are now giving panda loans Deutsche Bank major bank is now saying well we're not
45:3145 minutes, 31 secondsgiving dollar loans Now we are bracing we issuing bonds panda bonds in one either a digital one
45:4145 minutes, 41 secondsor classical one and um things are changing and the process um
45:4945 minutes, 49 secondsgeopolitically is is is shifting and Iran is is is gradually in its small way
45:5845 minutes, 58 secondsemphasizing and and working on these rifts in the geop political structures
46:0546 minutes, 5 secondsto to gain leverage for their main demand, which is we want the paradigm
46:1246 minutes, 12 secondsover. We've had it 48 years of being in a cage and we're breaking out.
46:2146 minutes, 21 secondsIf the ceasefire talks break down,
46:2546 minutes, 25 secondshow likely do you think it is that the United States would resume its aerial campaign against Iran?
46:3546 minutes, 35 secondsThe the the sort of from what I understand, the Iranians don't think that America is about to resume
46:4446 minutes, 44 secondsum the war. America, they think Israel is a different case.
46:5146 minutes, 51 secondsBut they don't think America is likely to resume the war because they don't really have any cards to play. Already
46:5946 minutes, 59 secondsthe Iranians have pushed, you know, the naval assets a thousand kilometers from
47:0647 minutes, 6 secondsfrom the coastline by firing um drones as warning and pushing. So, the carriers
47:1347 minutes, 13 secondshave been pushed beyond the range of their deck strike aircraft to be able to to to overfly Iran without refueling.
47:2247 minutes, 22 secondsAnd you can't refuel over your target.
47:2447 minutes, 24 secondsIt's not a visible thing to do. They pushed that out. They've destroyed most of the bases uh in the Gulf States.
47:3347 minutes, 33 secondsHeavy damage. Um the um radar systems have been destroyed. some of the Awax
47:4147 minutes, 41 secondsbeing uh disabled. So um apart from the ability to just simply
47:4947 minutes, 49 secondsblindly bombard basically civil infrastructure,
47:5647 minutes, 56 secondshouses, residences, hospitals, and things like that in in Tehran and elsewhere.
48:0348 minutes, 3 secondsAll by the way, not necessarily by aircraft flying over it because they largely don't. These are standoff
48:1048 minutes, 10 secondsweapons, cruise missiles and others that are used to do these attacks. So what's
48:1748 minutes, 17 secondsreally left to the United States militarily to do that would be a gamecher? I mean uh what bomb again Nant
48:2748 minutes, 27 secondshas. Um the only thing that that is particularly worrying is in this period
48:3448 minutes, 34 secondsum Nantas the nuclear facilities that was bombed um in June by President Trump um uh has been bombed again by Israel.
48:4648 minutes, 46 secondsBut Israel has also put into a missile very close to Bucher. And just for you so you viewers are clear about it.
48:5648 minutes, 56 secondsBusher is a working um uh power plant,
49:0149 minutes, 1 secondnuclearpowered PL power plant which is a joint venture with Russia. So it's half
49:0849 minutes, 8 secondsstaffed with Russians about I think 135 of them has now been withdrawn but then there was another missile which actually
49:1749 minutes, 17 secondshit Busher. Not much damage, a little damage, but what's the signal coming from from from Israel, from that on the
49:2749 minutes, 27 secondsnuclear target? And I think the signal is not so much to Iran, but to the United States and what are they saying to the US?
49:3949 minutes, 39 secondsKeep the war up or else we might be decide that we are going to resort to practical nuclear weapons.
49:4649 minutes, 46 secondsRight.
49:5049 minutes, 50 secondsGreat. Thank you, Alistair. Uh, and I want to thank Melena, uh, Sophia, and Max who produce the show. You can find me at chris edges.substack.com.
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