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Forces of Fortune: The Rise of the New Muslim Middle Class and What It Will Mean for Our World Hardcover – 15 September 2009
by Vali Nasr (Author)
4.2 4.2 out of 5 stars (20)
Nasr offers a dissection of the problem the west faces with Iran that will transform the terms of debate, putting on the map a totally unappreciated phenomenon of the Islamic world that is the key to understanding how we can win this new cold war. He illuminates the growing clout within Iran and several other of the most pivotal Islamic countries the west must mend relations with - such as Pakistan and Turkey - of a new business class and how this new class is the key to turning our fortunes in the region. Showing that the Bush administration's approach has been a disaster in this regard, further alienating the very people we need most to bring over to our side, he reveals how, by reversing course and building strong ties to this pragmatic business class in Iran, the west can pull the rug of power out from under the extremist mullahs and forge strong new alliances in the region.
About the Author
Vali Nasr is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy of Tufts University and a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, as well as a senior fellow of The Dubai Initiative run by Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government. He is the author of three books: The Shia Revival; Democracy in Iran, and The Islamic Leviathan. He appears regularly on major network news shows as an expert on Middle Eastern affairs and regularly writes op-eds for the Washington Post and Wall St. Journal. He was born in Iran and now lives in the US.
Top reviews from other countries
Translated by AmazonSee original
黒羽夏彦
5.0 out of 5 stars Focus on the middle class to see trends in the Islamic worldReviewed in Japan on 7 March 2011
Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase
The point of this book is that if the middle class is established and stabilized by the activation of economic activity, democracy and capitalism will become a conformative system in the Islamic world.However, it is not a model that diminish the religious color that modernists in Europe and America tend to think.Rather, with the advancement of capitalism, Muslims seek their bases of mind to traditional values, but economically stable middle classes do not run into extremism and accept progressive ideas.It points out that secularism is not an absolute requirement for democracy and capitalism in Islam in terms of contradictory but also compatible. From this point of view, the situation of Islamic countries is considered.
Anti-Islamic and Western modernization-oriented secularists fail to form middle class in the country due to top-down excesses by authoritarian regimes, the gap between poor and wealth is expanding, and socialIt brought instability.It was the Islamist forces that served as a saucer for dissatisfaction with secularists's failure.Because of social injustice and poverty, such Islamism will not evolve rapidly if even good governance can be achieved.In this regard, the AKP (Fair Development Party) administration in Turkey is the model of attention.Although AKP has originated from Islamic parties, he points out that it handles economic policy well and also promotes political pluralism.
Even in a series of ongoing circumstances in the Middle East Coup, the progress of the situation seems to be significantly different depending on the differences in the social background of each country.The presence or absence of a middle class as one of the indicators should also be considered, but the prospects for it are organized in this book and I read it interestingly.
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Translated from Japanese by Amazon
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Andy "Alpha 3"
5.0 out of 5 stars A Critical Analysis of the Re-emerging Muslim WorldReviewed in the United States on 21 February 2010
Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase
The author, Vali Nasr, explores the recent political history of the Muslim world and the probable direction it is moving. He explores a wide range of issues affecting Muslims globally to include: the changing role of women, desire for democracy, the root causes of extremism, growing convergence of Islam with modernity taught in madrasahs (schools), and dealing with shariah (Islamic law). He provides the reader with perceptive observations of many Muslim world countries with a greater emphasis on Turkey and Iran. His realistic thesis is that once people have economic opportunities they will acquire a vested interest, hence seek to maintain their improved way of life. I did think Nasr tended to treat the Shah a little too kindly. This was further evidenced in the total omission of any reference to Iran's hated and feared secret police during the Shah's reign. Aside from that, a realistic and encouraging assessment.
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Lars Lofgren
4.0 out of 5 stars One of the Best Overviews of the Middle EastReviewed in the United States on 13 September 2010
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In his new book, Vali Nasr provides an overview of the broad, societal trends that have shaped the Middle East over the last century. Each chapter serves as an overview of the popular topics of the region including Iran, Dubai, Pakistan, Turkey, fundamentalism, and the popularity of state control over the economy though Kemalism. Anecdotes are used throughout the book with engaging writing to absorb the reader in his discussion of the historical trends in the region. Nasr also makes a point to address popular misconceptions of events in the Middle East, providing a clear and thoughtful overview of many heavily debated topics. Throughout this discussion, Nasr exemplifies the importance of the middle class in fostering democratic norms, reducing tensions, and developing an economically vibrant region. If the West hopes to achieve long term reform within the region, it must promote economic reforms that support the moderate Muslim middle class. Only then will secularism, human rights, and democracy begin to gain prominence.
Response:
Nasr's thesis of empowering the middle class of the Middle East to spur democratic reform throughout the region depends on a single assumption: the adoption of a neoliberal world view. Neoliberalism is a perspective within international relations that states economic interdependency and the adoption of democratic norms will reduce conflict throughout the globe. This is essentially Nasr's argument. As the middle class of the Middle East is allowed to progress economically, political reform will follow and tensions between the Middle East and the West will decline.
There are numerous counters to this perspective. For example, Japan and the United States were highly integrated economically before World War II yet this did not prevent them from going to war. Realism, the other dominant world view in international relations, would assert that states are inherently self-interested since there is no global power that can monopolize force. Even though the middle class of the Middle East may spur economic development, these states will persistently pursue their self interest. Since the survival of any given country is never assured, national interests are built on a foundation of increasing one's relative power compared to other states.
The answer is most likely somewhere between the two perspectives. Nasr's policy perspectives will most likely decrease conflict within and from the region. However, conflict should not be expected to be completely negated. There are no foundational "peace" theories within international relations, and for every model of peace, there is contrasting examples of that model leading to war. In short, Nasr's policy recommendations are likely to increase long-term development, consolidate democratic norms, and reduce tensions, but they cannot be expected to bring complete stability and peace to the region.
Bottom Line:
Vali Nasr presents an incredibly informative book. Forces of Fortune is, hands down, one of the best primers on the Middle East. While there are numerous topics not discussed like the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, Nasr focuses on the underlying dilemmas within the region that underpin today's tensions. Anyone that has an interest in the Middle East must read this book. For those that have already studied the Middle East at depth and are familiar with the concepts of neoliberalism, this book won't provide much in the way of new insights however.
For more reviews and an in-depth summary of Nasr's book, find us at Hand of Reason.
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Alexandra Hopkins
5.0 out of 5 stars Interesting and Informative Book!Reviewed in the United States on 6 March 2011
Format: MP3 CDVerified Purchase
I enjoyed this book and learned a lot from it about the Arab world. It has particular meaning at this time when the New Muslim Middle Class truly is rising in countries like Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya. I highly recommend this book if you are interested in learning more about Islam and the Arab world of today.
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Kindle Addict
2.0 out of 5 stars Round Hole, Square PegReviewed in the United States on 17 January 2010
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Vali Nasr attempts to prove his thesis, that commerce and modernity are the keys of development of the Muslim community, specifically in the Middle East. He argues if the west focuses on working with and integrating the Muslim middle class in the global economy, the threat of extremism will be diminished.
Although he provides some examples to support his main contention (countries, movements) he fails to prove out his thesis.
1. Modernity and Terrorism - Bin Laden, Omar Sheikh (the killer of Daniel Pearl), Dr. Zawahiri, the underwear bomber, the 911 hijackers, the Sayyid Qutb, etc all came from middle-class to wealthy families. They were exposed to and integrated in upper levels of society and had all the opportunities anyone could want.....yet all turned to terrorism. If modernity is the answer Mr. Nasr needs to address this point more directly.
2. Weak Proof Points - Mr. Nasr points to Turkey, Dubai, and a civil movement in Pakistan (and others) all as proof points that the majority of the middle-east muslim community yearns for the stability that a prosperous middle class provides. But the book feels like it's trying to substitute the limited successes or examples of modernity as a wave that is sweeping across the muslim community.
Dubai is barely a country and can hardly serve as a model for how a country should be governed due to its size. Other small countries like Bahrain or Qutar may take notice and glean some "key learnings", but the success of Dubai hardly applies to larger countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan etc.
3. Data - there is very little in the way of data to support his thesis. On the ground, anecdotal evidence is always good, but supporting data is needed. Is the incredible amount of money flowing through the Middle East lifting a lot of people out of poverty, or just a select few (GDP per capita)?
This book and a host of others have signaled that we are entering a new era, where the "rest rise up" and America's unipolar moment is on the decline. But to it's hard to discern if the rise in fortunes of Turkey (and to a lesser extent Dubai) are due to globalization and are exceptions to the Middle East....or of they are a proxy to a rise of a muslim middle class.
If it is the latter, this book falls short in making that a convincing argument.
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