Carrick Ryan - It's worth remembering that while Trump demands... | Facebook
Carrick Ryan
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It's worth remembering that while Trump demands Iran "make a deal" with him, they already made one with Obama more than a decade ago - Trump tore it up. Importantly, the deal not only had the support of Iran, but the rest of the world.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was a deal signed by Iran and the U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China, and Germany, with the explicit intention of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon while simultaneously reintroducing the regime into the international community.
It was essentially a collection of technical limitations on Iran's nuclear program, designed to extend the "breakout time", the time required for Iran to produce enough fissile material for a weapon, to at least 12 months.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was to be guaranteed access to inspect and monitor sites, and even potentially "undeclared" sites through a defined dispute resolution system.
In return, Iran would receive substantial sanctions relief, including the unfreezing of billions of dollars in Iranian assets and foreign currency reserves.
Of course, it wasn't perfect. It relied on a lot of trust. But most experts agreed that while the deal may have strengthened the regime economically, it would have made it incredibly difficult for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon without early detection.
It was the result of true diplomacy. A brilliant and well constructed attempt by a genuine statesman to literally bring traditional adversaries to the table and find common ground in the pursuit of global peace.
So... why did it fail?
Fox News and other right wing media railed against the deal and propagated a lie that Obama had literally paid the Iranians billions of dollars (he had actually just returned Iran's own money that had been frozen as a result or sanctions).
Netenyahu, in particular, aggressively criticised the deal as a "historic mistake", and urged Republicans to oppose the deal during a speech to Congress (while Obama was still President!).
Then... in 2018, Trump withdrew from the deal, calling it "the worst deal ever."
The Europeans, Chinese, and Russians attempted to continue the deal without the U.S., but Trump not only reimposed sanctions — he added new ones.
Iran initially complied, but after about a year of inaction, it began incrementally breaching the agreement and recommenced enrichment programs that had been ceased under the deal.
Perhaps most tragically, the Iranian President who had signed the deal, Hassan Rouhani, was a moderate who had hung his reputation on this engagement with the West. He advocated for the deal within Iran as an alternate path to indefinite hostility. He and Obama seemed to genuinely believe that a new relationship was possible.
Trump demonstrated to the Iranian people that any deal with the USA was meaningless. In the next election, a hardline and anti-Western cleric named Ebrahim Raisi was elected President of Iran, riding a wave of resentment from this American betrayal.
Raisi dramatically intensified Iran's hostile posture toward the West and increased military support for its proxies across the region, while also accelerating Iran's nuclear program.
So much of the instability in the region today — in Israel, Yemen, Lebanon, and even Sudan — can be attributed, to some degree, to Trump's reckless unilateral decision to tear up Obama’s nuclear deal... seemingly out of spite more than anything.
Iran could have been brought in from the cold and become a stabilising presence in the region. Instead, they're providing drones to bomb Ukrainian cities, fighting proxy wars through Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis... and are now at war with Israel.
The big question now is why on earth would the Iranians trust any new deal with the US will be honoured when the last one was simply torn up by the next President?
Nikolce KocovskiEverything because Obama did it, that mango Mussolini is a major taco.
Jason LisowykThis cartoon pretty much sums up Trump's thought of the Iran deal
Ali AkbarA very fair, precise and accurate assessment of the past and present events regarding Iran. Good on you
Carrick for putting facts ahead of emotions and propaganda. Trump truly did blow-up a major chance of making a lasting peace with Iran and in the Middle East in his first term, then he doubled down on this grave mistake, because Israel
More than anything else, I feel terrible for the common people of Iran to constantly live under the constant threat of violence from foreign belligerent countries, unfair and restrictive domestic laws and crippling economic sanctions by the western world. I’m amazed how that country is not only still functioning, but that they’ve developed formidable missile and drone defence system. It is a testament to the resilience of that nation.
R.J. PooleWell said Carrick. The leaders we elect are so important.
Andy WalkdenIn metaphor, Trump is a man whose only tool is a hammer, so every problem becomes a nail. Obama understood the role of both the carrot and the stick in motivation. He kept promises too.
Rell BartlettThe question now is ..'why would ANY country do deals with, and trust the U.S.' ?
Perhaps DebbieI cannot believe that no one, no one in the group of ' reporters ' that get to ask Trump questions has not brought this up and questioned Trump on it. Not that I've heard anyway.
Randell ClarkLike I’ve been saying for 9 years, Trump’s worst action, but Carrick says it better.
Bob LackI seem to recall that Ukraine also signed up to a deal. They surrendered their ex-USSR nuclear missiles in return for security guarantees from various countries including the USA. And is the USA honouring that deal? Just asking for a friend ...
Taff HughesI'm getting the impression that Trump's looking for a reason to prove himself after his self-inflicted humiliation over Greenland.
Robert BoydAsk yourself, which country in the middle East gains most from America starting a conflict with Iran? I don't believe that Trump is sending the fleet out of concern for protesters.
Posie LyonsBut wait...what's in it for Jared...KUSHNER, not the Subway Jared
Zane LockettUS words are not worth the paper they’re written on. Surely most of the western world are utterly sick of US foreign interventions. I truly hope Australia and New Zealand extricate themselves from overbearing US influence and align more directly with Canada and Europe. A lot of US culture is vulgar and gross and heavily spills into our societies also. The Canadians and Europeans have more culture and class.
Corrienne Dias-VerbonOfcourse Netanyahu had a whisper in Trump's ear at the time. So many pieces of the puzzle now come in place.... Israel has a finger in everything..
Matthew DonnonTrump: did Obama do or win something I don't have?
Also Trump: does this make my offshore bank account bigger?
Michael WoodsI thought he said the Aussie/ US refugee swap was the worst deal ever? Seems there were a lot of worst deals ever. I guess that was dependent upon what Fox and the Angertainment crew were shouting at the time?
Cabdiraxmaan IndhoWhen the agreement is examined more closely, it becomes clear that one of its most vocal opponents was AIPAC, which perceived the negotiations as a strategic victory for Iran at the negotiating table. This perception was later echoed by Donald Trump himself. While he was out of office and after his accounts had been suspended on Twitter (now X), Trump wrote: “Iran cannot win a war, but no one wins in negotiations.”
That statement, in many ways, revealed the underlying mindset behind the U.S. withdrawal from the deal. It reinforced the belief held by influential pro-Zionist actors that the Democratic administration had committed a grave mistake by allowing diplomacy to replace coercion.
Looking at the situation today with a degree of realism, one could reasonably infer that the United States may already assume that Iran possesses nuclear weapons capability, or at least the technical threshold to achieve it. What Iran arguably lacks, however, are long-range delivery systems or strategic capabilities comparable to those of Russia or the United States.
This inference becomes clearer when contrasted with the invasion of Iraq, which was justified on the basis of fabricated claims that Baghdad possessed weapons of mass destruction. The speed and decisiveness with which Iraq was invaded, compared to the caution exercised toward Iran, is highly revealing.
Ultimately, Iran has become a major test case confronting the Arab monarchies regimes that largely serve Zionist and global capitalist interests—raising the critical question of how, or even whether, they are capable of countering Iran’s growing influence and strategic resilience.
Zoltan BartusModerate Iranian leader spurned, creating a wave of resentment for a hardline leader to come in on. Hmmm, so, so familiar, that story...
Derek BellWhile the history above is important to understand, Obama’s plan still left the regime in charge. Most Persians I know, want the regime gone. Obama is not a hero amongst many Persians - his plan suited the US and the West, not the Persians. And don’t even mention Carter. The regime has to go and only the people of Iran can make that happen.
Christopher BirdGreat writing Carrick. I didn’t know the full story and you explained it very well. Honestly Trump is like a human wrecking ball for the world.
Ying-Fu LiI don’t agree that Iran is at war with Israel. It’s actually the other way around and I would have thought you’d have that same conviction when you point to Netanyahu’s role in the ending of Obama’s deal.
Miles HitchcockDid Iran stop funding Hezbollah and Hamas during the period of this deal? No. In fact its regional provocations increased due to the lifting of sanctions. Perhaps this had something to do with what a 'bad deal' it was.
David KowGood question. How could Iran or any country trust US to honor deals? Deals can always be tore up by the next President, or the current one.
E.g "you get tariffed if you don't give me Greenland".
Rolf ForsterSo much psychology in that small round table..versus the long rectangular ones favoured by dictators!
Ismail Hassan ManikHistory has proven that USA is the only country that used nuclear weapons against another nation called Japan.
Bob KershawHe would have torn it up because it was negotiated by Obama.
Ibra HimGreat. Now do an analysis of the Abraham Accords
Alan RiordanI don't see any Iranians at that table!!! Its one of those deals i see..
William MalabreThey already signed off on the deal with the statement “the next one won’t miss”
Marlo Lynn RaymarkYou do an excellent job of explaining foreign affairs in a way that a layman can understand! Thanks so much.
Sue KtI love Obama but he recently admitted that he wish he did more those years!!
Christian J CharetteHe basically thinks he is successful if his name goes on something.
If they changed the ACA to Trump-care he would say how amazing it is.
Patricia PlaceIt also had serious economic consequences for Canada. Because the Chinese company Huawei was doing some business in Iran, Meng Wanzhou, daughter of the company founder and an executive of the company as well, was accused of misleading an HSBC executive during a 2013 meeting about her corporation's ties to the subsidiary doing business there. A US warrant for her arrest was issued, and she was detained by Canadian law enforcement at the request of US authorities when changing planes in Vancouver.
It wasn't our government doing this, it was law enforcement, acting independently of the federal government, as law enforcement is supposed to be able to do, and as they were legally required to do by the terms of the extradition treaty between Canada and the US.
But days later, the "two Michaels" were arrested in China, and incarcerated while Meng Wanzhou was under house arrest in Vancouver in a mansion. China retaliated against Canada in other ways, which reduced exports of Canadian agricultural products to the country significantly. Charges eventually ended up being dropped, and Meng Wanzhou returned to China while Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor were returned to Canada. But NONE of this drama would have occurred had Trump not torn up Obama's deal with Iran and imposed the sanctions that Huawei was supposedly violating. If that deal - signed by a moderate Iranian leader who was trying to move the country towards a better relationship with the west - had remained in place, it is likely that the horrific violence that has been occurring in Iran in recent weeks might not be happening. All this, because Trump just HAD to undo Obama's accomplishments.
Extradition case of Meng Wanzhou - Wikipedia https://share.google/GWLRJJSyGfeCguymm
Kellye PmcgBarack Obama Please make a statement. Daily. We’re making calls to our elected officials. Can you make some calls too?
David LarkinThe Yanks have never found a Treaty or Agreement they wouldn't break or an ally they won't abandon, que the latest, the Syrian Kurds . Any agreement with them is not worth the paper its written on
John MosherIt is also worth remembering that this was a "political agreement" with the Obama administration. It was not a treaty or an executive agreement. Everyone involved, including the Iranians, knew this would not withstand a Congressional vote.
It was opposed by Trump during his 2016 election campaign.
This wikipedia page has 16 polls from 2015 with varying results (what was not uncommon was that way too many had no clue).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reactions_to_the_Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action
Tony VenablesSo, how much more of Irans money is held by the USA?
I’m guessing that Trump is trying to work out a way to keep it, that’s right out of his playbook
